Market brief

The oil shock of March and April slowed growth to 2.3%, took inflation to a three-year high of 7.2% and reversed the easing cycle, while the peso reached a record monthly average. Retail electricity is 14% dearer than a year ago and the pass-through is not finished. The quarterly market brief for April to June 2026.

5 September 2026 · 5 min read

Growth slowed to 2.8% and spot power was at its cheapest of the year, then the oil shock took inflation to 4.1% in March. In February the Department of Energy set out ten years of auctions and made storage mandatory for large solar and wind. A retrospective edition covering January to March 2026.

20 May 2026 · 3 min read

The year closed at 3.0% growth and 4.4% for 2025, investment down 10.9%, the peso at a record low and the policy rate at 4.50%. The fourth Green Energy Auction awarded 10,195 MW, none of it biomass or waste-to-energy. A retrospective edition covering October to December 2025.

20 February 2026 · 2 min read

Growth fell to 3.9%, the lowest in more than four years, as public construction stopped. Fuel, spot power and money were all cheap, and inflation stayed below the target band. A retrospective edition of the quarterly market brief, covering July to September 2025.

20 November 2025 · 3 min read

Growth of 5.5%, inflation at 1.4% in June, a second rate cut to 5.25%, and the third Green Energy Auction awarded 6,677 MW, almost all of it pumped storage.

20 August 2025 · 2 min read

Growth of 5.4% and inflation down to 1.8% by March, the lowest in nearly five years, with the first rate cut of the year in April.

20 May 2025 · 2 min read

The year closed at 5.6% growth and 3.2% average inflation, with a third rate cut to 5.75% and the peso back at its record low of 59 to the dollar.

20 February 2025 · 2 min read

Growth slowed to 5.2% as typhoons hit the quarter, inflation fell to 1.9% in September, and the central bank began cutting, to 6.00% by October.

20 December 2024 · 2 min read

The strongest quarter of the year at 6.3% growth, with inflation peaking at 4.4% in July, and a Luzon grid running on thin reserves through the hottest months.

20 September 2024 · 2 min read

Growth of 5.7% with inflation drifting up to 3.7% by March, the policy rate held at 6.50%, and the dry season tightening the Luzon grid.

20 May 2024 · 2 min read

The year closed at 5.6% growth and 6.0% average inflation, with the policy rate at 6.50% and coal back to about 135 dollars a tonne.

20 February 2024 · 2 min read

Growth recovered to 5.9% while rice and fuel pushed inflation back to 6.1% in September, and the central bank raised off-cycle to 6.50% in October.

20 November 2023 · 2 min read

Growth fell to 4.3%, the weakest since the pandemic, as government spending contracted and rates stayed at 6.25%. The second Green Energy Auction offered 11,600 MW.

20 August 2023 · 2 min read

Inflation peaked at 8.7% in January and the policy rate reached 6.25%, while growth slowed to 6.4%. Coal fell back to about 230 dollars a tonne.

20 May 2023 · 2 min read

Growth of 7.2% closed 2022 at 7.6%, the fastest in decades, with inflation at 8.1% in December and the policy rate at 5.50%. Coal began to fall.

20 February 2023 · 2 min read

Growth of 7.6%, inflation at 6.9% by September, the peso at a record 59 to the dollar, and coal at its all-time peak. The policy rate reached 4.25%.

20 November 2022 · 2 min read

Growth of 7.4%, inflation through the band to 6.1% in June, the first two rate rises of the cycle, and coal above 350 dollars a tonne. The first Green Energy Auction opened.

20 August 2022 · 2 min read

Growth of 8.3% off a locked-down base, inflation still inside the band at 4.0% in March, and a policy rate at 2.00% about to move. Coal and crude were already climbing after the invasion of Ukraine.

20 May 2022 · 2 min read