Philippine energy market, second quarter 2025

The second quarter of 2025 held the pattern: growth of 5.5%, inflation at 1.4%, and a second rate cut in June. The quarter's substance was the award of the third Green Energy Auction, which procured 6,677 MW — and almost all of it pumped storage.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers April to June 2025. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

Growth of 5.5%

Real GDP grew 5.5% year on year, slightly ahead of the first quarter's 5.4%. Government consumption grew 8.7% and gross capital formation almost stalled, at 0.6% — the first sign of the investment weakness that dominated the following year.

Inflation near its floor

Headline inflation was 1.4% in April, 1.3% in May and 1.4% in June, well below the band. The central bank cut by 25 basis points in April, to 5.50%, and again on 19 June, to 5.25%.

Fuel: a brief scare, then back down

Dubai crude averaged about 68 dollars a barrel across the quarter. Prices moved sharply in the middle of June on hostilities in the Middle East, then settled within two weeks — a rehearsal for the shock that came the following March and did not settle.

The third auction: 6,677 MW, and what it was made of

On 10 June the Department of Energy issued the notices of award for the third round: 12 projects totalling 6,677 MW, of which 6,350 MW is pumped-storage hydro, 300 MW impounding hydro and 31 MW geothermal, for delivery between 2025 and 2035. It was the first round to procure capacity that can be dispatched. There was no biomass and no waste-to-energy in it.

What it meant for a plant

The auction result says where national policy expects firm capacity to come from, and it is not from the waste and residues sitting on industrial sites. For a plant, that is not a reason to wait for a round to arrive: the fuel is already on site, and the case is made against the disposal cost and the boiler bill rather than against a tariff.

If you run a fuel-fired boiler or produce an organic residue, an energy and waste audit turns a quarter like this one into your own numbers. Tell us about your site and an engineer replies with the data we need. The other editions are filed under the quarterly market brief.