Philippines Quarterly Energy Briefing

What each edition holds

• Real GDP growth by expenditure, inflation and the sub-indices that moved it, the policy rate and the peso, from the PSA and the BSP.
• Dubai crude, Australian thermal coal and Japan LNG, and what the pump and electricity indices did in response.
• The wholesale spot market by region and billing period, from IEMOP, and what set the price that quarter.
• The Green Energy Auction rounds awarded, opened and scheduled, and the Department of Energy circulars issued.
• What the quarter meant for a plant: one page, in plain words, for a site with a boiler or organic residues.

• Q2 2026 · issued September 2026

  Philippines Quarterly Energy Briefing — Q2 2026 (Issue 1)

  Growth slowed to 2.3% in Q2 2026 (fourth consecutive quarter of slowing) as the March–April 2026 oil shock pushed headline inflation to a three-year high of 7.2% before easing to 6.1% in August; BSP reversed its easing cycle to 5.00%; the peso averaged ₱61.45 in August. Electricity CPI accelerated to 14.4% YoY in August with a one-to-two-month lag. Luzon WESM ₱7.30–7.95/kWh in June–July; Mindanao ₱10.39–12.75/kWh. GEA-5 offshore wind ceiling set by ERC Resolution 05 s.2026; GEA-6 (onshore wind, floating solar) to GEA-9 (biomass, geothermal, solar, hydro) announced under the 10-year plan targeting 25 GW by 2035. Policy: storage mandatory for RE plants ≥10 MW (DC2026-02-0008), own-use solar simplified (DC2026-08-0017), biodiesel blend to B5 on 1 Oct 2026, waste-to-energy and nuclear programmes advanced. No official carbon or plastic-credit price series exists in the Philippines. Prepared from PSA, BIS, IMF, World Bank, DOE and IEMOP; every figure traceable to its source table.

• Q1 2026 · issued September 2026

  Philippines Quarterly Energy Briefing — Q1 2026 (Retrospective edition)

  A retrospective edition, compiled in September 2026 from the official releases for the quarter and the revisions published since. Growth slowed for a fifth consecutive quarter to 2.8%; gross capital formation fell 3.3% and general government construction 31.5%. Inflation was 2.0% in January, 2.4% in February and 4.1% in March, above the band, with diesel 59.5% and gasoline 27.3% dearer than a year earlier. The BSP made its last cut, to 4.25%, in February and held off-cycle in March; the reversal to 4.50% came on 23 April. The peso averaged 59.19 in January. Luzon spot prices averaged 2.69 pesos per kWh in February, the cheapest of the year, and the system 4.31 in March. The DOE announced GEA-5 to GEA-9 for 2026 and 2027 targeting 25 GW by 2035, made storage of at least 20% mandatory for solar and wind of 10 MW and above, and opened GEA-5 for 3,300 MW of offshore wind on 2 March.

• Q4 2025 · issued September 2026

  Philippines Quarterly Energy Briefing — Q4 2025 (Retrospective edition)

  A retrospective edition, compiled in September 2026 from the official releases for the quarter and the revisions published since. Growth was 3.0% in the quarter and 4.4% for 2025, the slowest in five years. Gross capital formation fell 10.9% as general government construction fell 41.9%; household consumption grew 3.8%. Headline inflation ended the year at 1.8% with a 2025 average of 1.7%. The BSP cut in October and on 11 December to 4.50%, five cuts and 125 bp in 2025. The peso set a record low of 59.13 to the dollar on 28 October and closed the year at 59.22. Dubai crude averaged 62.1 dollars a barrel; the WESM effective average for January to November was 4.32 pesos per kWh. GEA-4 awarded 10,195 MW across 123 projects on 6 November for delivery in 2026 to 2029, none of it dispatchable biomass or waste-to-energy.

• Q3 2025 · issued September 2026

  Philippines Quarterly Energy Briefing — Q3 2025 (Retrospective edition)

  A retrospective edition, compiled in September 2026 from the official releases for the quarter and the revisions published since. Real GDP growth fell to 3.9% year on year (revised from 4.0%), the lowest in more than four years, as general government construction fell 26.2% during the flood-control spending investigation and gross capital formation contracted 2.8%. Headline inflation was 0.9% in July, 1.5% in August and 1.7% in September, below the 2 to 4% band. The BSP cut the policy rate by 25 bp to 5.00% on 28 August, the third cut of 2025. Dubai crude averaged 67.5 dollars a barrel and Australian thermal coal 110.5 dollars a tonne. IEMOP reported a system-wide average of 3.04 pesos per kWh for the September billing period, the lowest in seven months. GEA-3 award notices were issued in June 2025.

Each edition is also read short in Insights.