Philippine energy market, fourth quarter 2022

The fourth quarter closed 2022 at 7.6% growth for the year, the fastest since the 1970s, and at 8.1% inflation in December, the highest in fourteen years. The policy rate ended the year at 5.50% after seven increases totalling 350 basis points. Coal had started to come down.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers October to December 2022. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

A record year for growth and for prices at once

Real GDP grew 7.2% in the quarter, bringing 2022 to 7.6%. Headline inflation was 7.7% in October, 8.0% in November and 8.1% in December, with a full-year average of 5.8%.

The rate cycle finished the year at 5.50%

The central bank raised by 75 basis points on 17 November and 50 more on 15 December. From 2.00% in May to 5.50% in December, the fastest tightening in twenty years. It was not finished: two more increases followed in the first quarter of 2023.

Fuel started down

Dubai crude averaged about 86 dollars a barrel and Australian thermal coal about 380 dollars a tonne, off the September peak but still four times the 2020 level. Electricity tariffs were still passing through the 2022 fuel cost with the usual lag, so the retail bill kept rising as the commodity fell.

Policy: producer responsibility and foreign ownership

The Extended Producer Responsibility Act, signed in July 2022, put the obligation to recover plastic packaging on large enterprises and created the first commercial reason for many of them to look at their own waste.

In November the Department of Energy amended the rules of the Renewable Energy Act to allow full foreign ownership of renewable projects, which changed who could bid for the auctions that followed.

What it meant for a plant

Money, fuel and equipment were all expensive at once, which is the worst combination for a capital decision and the best one for an audit: the savings a project has to beat are set by the fuel bill, and the fuel bill had never been higher.

If you run a fuel-fired boiler or produce an organic residue, an energy and waste audit turns a quarter like this one into your own numbers. Tell us about your site and an engineer replies with the data we need. The other editions are filed under the quarterly market brief.