Philippine energy market, third quarter 2024

Growth slowed to 5.2% in the third quarter of 2024, held back by a run of typhoons, while inflation fell to 1.9% in September — the lowest in more than four years. The central bank started cutting: 25 basis points in August and 25 more in October, to 6.00%.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers July to September 2024. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

Growth of 5.2%, with the weather against it

Real GDP grew 5.2% year on year, down from 6.3% in the second quarter. Agriculture contracted and construction slowed; a series of storms in the quarter cost output and damaged the harvest.

Inflation collapsed

Headline inflation was 4.4% in July, 3.3% in August and 1.9% in September. Rice tariff cuts and a high base did most of it. The central bank cut the policy rate by 25 basis points on 15 August, to 6.25%, its first reduction in nearly four years, and again on 16 October, to 6.00%.

Fuel eased

Dubai crude averaged about 79 dollars a barrel, down from 85, and thermal coal held around 135 dollars a tonne. The peso weakened again towards the end of the quarter as the rate cuts began.

Auctions and policy

The third auction round for dispatchable renewables continued. Preparation began for a fourth round covering solar, wind and storage, which was offered the following year. Storage moved from an idea in the plan to a condition in the rounds.

What it meant for a plant

Cheaper money after four years of tightening, and a quarter that showed what weather does to a supply chain. The plants that came through it best were the ones burning a fuel produced within a few kilometres of the boiler, which is an argument about logistics rather than price.

If you run a fuel-fired boiler or produce an organic residue, an energy and waste audit turns a quarter like this one into your own numbers. Tell us about your site and an engineer replies with the data we need. The other editions are filed under the quarterly market brief.