Philippine energy market, second quarter 2023

Growth fell to 4.3% in the second quarter of 2023, the weakest quarter since the pandemic, with government spending contracting and the policy rate held at 6.25%. Inflation was back to 5.4% by June. The Department of Energy opened the largest renewable auction the country had run.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers April to June 2023. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

Growth of 4.3%, on public spending

Real GDP grew 4.3% year on year, well below the 6.4% of the first quarter. Government consumption fell, and the tightening of the previous twelve months was working through investment. Household consumption held up.

Inflation halved from its peak

Headline inflation was 6.6% in April, 6.1% in May and 5.4% in June, down from 8.7% in January. The policy rate stayed at 6.25% through the quarter.

Fuel and power

Dubai crude averaged about 78 dollars a barrel, the cheapest quarter since 2021. Australian thermal coal averaged about 160 dollars a tonne, less than half its level six months earlier. The spot electricity market was tight in the dry-season months, with supply alerts on the Luzon grid in April and May.

The second Green Energy Auction: 11,600 MW offered

The second round opened in June, offering 11,600 MW across solar, wind, biomass and hydro for delivery from 2024 to 2026, against 2,000 MW in the first round. Awards followed in August. Biomass was in the round but took a small share of it.

What it meant for a plant

With coal at 160 dollars and money at 6.25%, the pure fuel-switch case was the thinnest it had been in two years. What still stood on its own was waste: a site paying to dispose of an organic residue has a cost that does not move with the coal index, and that is the case that survives a cheap-fuel quarter.

If you run a fuel-fired boiler or produce an organic residue, an energy and waste audit turns a quarter like this one into your own numbers. Tell us about your site and an engineer replies with the data we need. The other editions are filed under the quarterly market brief.