Philippine energy market, third quarter 2023

Growth recovered to 5.9% in the third quarter of 2023, and inflation went back up: 4.7% in July became 6.1% in September as rice and fuel prices moved together. The central bank, which had held all quarter, raised off-cycle in October to 6.50%.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers July to September 2023. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

Growth back to 5.9%

Real GDP grew 5.9% year on year, against 4.3% in the second quarter, as public spending resumed. The figure was later revised to 6.0%.

Inflation turned back up

July: 4.7%, the low of the year.

August: 5.3%.

September: 6.1%.

Rice was the largest single contributor, with fuel behind it. The central bank held at 6.25% through the quarter and then raised by 25 basis points at an off-cycle meeting on 26 October, to 6.50%, where the rate stayed for ten months.

Fuel rose again

Dubai crude averaged about 86 dollars a barrel, up from 78 in the second quarter, on supply restraint by the large exporters. Australian thermal coal averaged about 150 dollars a tonne. The peso weakened towards 57 to the dollar.

Auctions and offtake

The second Green Energy Auction was awarded in August. Attention moved to offshore wind, where service contracts had been issued faster than the grid could absorb them, and to the third round, which was being prepared for the technologies the first two had not reached: geothermal, impounding hydro and pumped storage.

What it meant for a plant

A plant with a food or agricultural residue had two reasons to act in this quarter rather than one: the fuel it could replace was dearer again, and the disposal it was paying for had not become cheaper. The two never move together, which is why the audit counts both.

If you run a fuel-fired boiler or produce an organic residue, an energy and waste audit turns a quarter like this one into your own numbers. Tell us about your site and an engineer replies with the data we need. The other editions are filed under the quarterly market brief.