Philippine energy market, first quarter 2023

Inflation peaked in the first month of 2023 at 8.7%, the highest in fourteen years, and the policy rate finished the quarter at 6.25%. Growth slowed to 6.4%. The commodity side had already turned: thermal coal was a third of its September peak by the end of the quarter.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers January to March 2023. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

The peak, and the turn

Headline inflation was 8.7% in January, 8.6% in February and 7.6% in March. January was the top of the cycle. Real GDP grew 6.4%, down from 7.2% in the previous quarter but still well above trend.

The rate cycle ended at 6.25%, for a while

The central bank raised by 50 basis points on 16 February, to 6.00%, and by 25 on 23 March, to 6.25%. It then held for seven months before one more increase in October.

Coal fell faster than it rose

Australian thermal coal averaged about 230 dollars a tonne across the quarter, against 380 in the fourth quarter of 2022, and kept falling. Dubai crude averaged about 80 dollars a barrel. Mild northern-hemisphere weather and rebuilt European stocks did in one quarter what a year of demand response had not.

The second auction was in preparation

The Department of Energy prepared the second Green Energy Auction through the quarter, for a round far larger than the first. The first round's awarded projects were entering development.

What it meant for a plant

The fuel argument narrowed as coal came down, and the money argument tightened as the policy rate reached 6.25%. A project that had been justified on 2022 fuel prices needed re-running on these, which is exactly what a scoped audit is for: the answer to the same site can change twice in a year.

If you run a fuel-fired boiler or produce an organic residue, an energy and waste audit turns a quarter like this one into your own numbers. Tell us about your site and an engineer replies with the data we need. The other editions are filed under the quarterly market brief.