Philippine energy market, fourth quarter 2024

The fourth quarter closed 2024 at 5.6% growth for the year and 3.2% average inflation, with a third rate cut in December taking the policy rate to 5.75%. The peso returned to 59 to the dollar, matching its 2022 record. Both figures were later revised: growth to 5.7%.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers October to December 2024. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

The year in one line

Real GDP grew 5.2% in the quarter, revised later to 5.3%, bringing 2024 to 5.6% and then 5.7% on revision. Headline inflation was 2.3% in October, 2.5% in November and 2.9% in December, averaging 3.2% for the year against 6.0% in 2023.

Three cuts, and a currency at its floor

The central bank cut by 25 basis points on 19 December, to 5.75% — the third reduction of the year. The peso weakened to 59 to the dollar in late November, the level it had first reached in October 2022, and the central bank described its role as smoothing rather than defending.

Fuel at a four-year low

Dubai crude averaged about 74 dollars a barrel, the cheapest quarter since 2021, and thermal coal about 135 dollars a tonne. In peso terms the fall was smaller than in dollars, which is the arithmetic a Philippine buyer actually faces.

Policy: storage becomes the condition

The fourth auction round was prepared for solar, wind and storage. Two years of auctions had procured a great deal of variable capacity and almost no firm capacity, and the round was designed with that in mind.

What it meant for a plant

Cheap fuel in dollars, a weak peso, and money getting cheaper: a mixed quarter for a capital decision, and a good one for doing the study. A plant that priced its options in this quarter had them ready when the oil shock arrived fifteen months later.

For a developer, the auction pipeline is the offtake question and the peso is the equipment question. We work with developers and technology providers on the Philippine execution side of both. Tell us about the project, or read the other editions under the quarterly market brief.