Philippine energy market, first quarter 2025

The first quarter of 2025 was the cheapest quarter for prices in five years. Growth was 5.4%, inflation fell to 1.8% by March, and the central bank resumed cutting in April. Nothing in the quarter suggested what the following year would bring.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers January to March 2025. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

Growth of 5.4%

Real GDP grew 5.4% year on year, close to the 5.7% of a year earlier. Household consumption improved as inflation fell; public construction was still the largest single contributor to investment.

Inflation at 1.8%

Headline inflation was 2.9% in January, 2.1% in February and 1.8% in March, below the 2 to 4% band by the end of the quarter. Rice prices, which had driven the 2023 spike, were falling year on year. The central bank held at 5.75% through the quarter and cut by 25 basis points in April, to 5.50%.

Fuel and power both cheap

Dubai crude averaged about 75 dollars a barrel. Thermal coal was near 100 dollars a tonne, its lowest since 2021. The spot electricity market was comfortable by the standards of the previous two dry seasons.

Auctions: the third round moves to award

The third Green Energy Auction, for geothermal, impounding hydro and pumped storage, moved towards its award notices, which were issued in June. The fourth round, for solar, wind and storage, was being prepared for the second half of the year.

What it meant for a plant

This was the quarter in which doing nothing looked most defensible: fuel cheap, power adequate, money getting cheaper. The plants that used it to run the numbers rather than to relax are the ones that moved first when the comparison reversed in March 2026.

If you run a fuel-fired boiler or produce an organic residue, an energy and waste audit turns a quarter like this one into your own numbers. Tell us about your site and an engineer replies with the data we need. The other editions are filed under the quarterly market brief.