Philippine energy market, third quarter 2022

The third quarter of 2022 combined the highest coal price on record with the weakest peso on record. Growth was 7.6%, inflation reached 6.9% by September, and the central bank raised twice more, to 4.25%. For anyone importing fuel or equipment, this was the most expensive quarter of the decade.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers July to September 2022. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

Growth of 7.6%, with the cost side against it

Real GDP grew 7.6% year on year. Consumption held; the pressure was on margins rather than volumes.

Inflation and the rate cycle

Headline inflation was 6.4% in July, 6.3% in August and 6.9% in September. The central bank raised by 75 basis points at an off-cycle meeting on 14 July, to 3.25%, then by 50 on 18 August and 50 more on 22 September, reaching 4.25%.

The peso passed 59

The peso weakened past 59 to the dollar at the start of October, a record at the time, after sliding through the quarter. Imported equipment, imported coal and dollar-denominated debt all repriced together.

Coal at its peak

Australian thermal coal reached its all-time high in September, above 400 dollars a tonne, and averaged about 410 across the quarter. Dubai crude eased to about 97 dollars a barrel from the June peak. The spot electricity market spent the quarter tight, with supply alerts and administered prices applied on the days when large units tripped.

What it meant for a plant

A coal-fired boiler was the most expensive way to make steam in the Philippines this quarter, and a husk- or bagasse-fired one was the cheapest. Several of the audits we were asked for in the following year trace back to a fuel bill from this quarter.

If you run a fuel-fired boiler or produce an organic residue, an energy and waste audit turns a quarter like this one into your own numbers. Tell us about your site and an engineer replies with the data we need. The other editions are filed under the quarterly market brief.