Philippine energy market, second quarter 2024

The second quarter of 2024 was the strongest of the year, at 6.3% growth, and the tightest for electricity. Reserves on the Luzon grid ran thin through the hottest months, supply alerts became routine, and the spot market repeatedly hit its administered ceiling. Inflation peaked just after the quarter, at 4.4% in July.

This edition of the quarterly market brief covers April to June 2024. Compiled in September 2026 from the releases of the time, with the revisions the agencies have published since. Nothing here is a forecast.

Growth of 6.3%

Real GDP grew 6.3% year on year, the best quarter of 2024, on construction, public spending and services. Gross capital formation grew for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Inflation at the top of the band

Headline inflation was 3.8% in April, 3.9% in May and 3.7% in June, then 4.4% in July — above the band for one month before falling sharply. The policy rate stayed at 6.50% through the quarter; the first cut came in August.

The grid, not the fuel

Dubai crude averaged about 85 dollars a barrel and thermal coal about 135 dollars a tonne, both unremarkable. What was remarkable was availability: April, May and June brought repeated yellow and red alerts on Luzon as demand records were set and large units went out, and the market operator applied administered prices on many of those days.

Policy and the pipeline

The third auction round was under way for dispatchable renewables. The regulator and the market operator worked through spot-market reforms aimed at the behaviour the quarter had exposed. Nothing in the pipeline was going to add firm capacity before the next dry season.

What it meant for a plant

Two things were true at once: a plant with its own generation rode the alerts out, and a plant without one discovered what its process is worth per hour when the grid cannot serve it. Availability, not the commodity price, is what a plant buys when it builds its own steam supply.

If you run a fuel-fired boiler or produce an organic residue, an energy and waste audit turns a quarter like this one into your own numbers. Tell us about your site and an engineer replies with the data we need. The other editions are filed under the quarterly market brief.